U.K. Stimulus Boosting Housing Risks

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said the U.K. economy needs further policy support and pledged to maintain vigilance over the risks easy money might create for the housing market.

“We need to provide a lot of stimulus, but that stimulus can create risks,” Carney said in an interview on the “Charlie Rose” show aired on Bloomberg Television. “We need to take other steps in order to reduce those risks. If we don’t, we’re going to create bigger problems down the road or we’re going to have to pull back too soon on monetary policy, which is the last thing we want to do.”

Data today showed a measure of U.K. house prices rose to the highest in more than a decade last month. Carney took action to head off a potential housing bubble last month by diluting a credit-boosting program. He said in a speech in New York yesterday that the move will help officials keep monetary policy loose for longer.

“The true recovery is beginning,” Carney said in the interview. “We’ve got big headwinds from Europe, from the currency, from ongoing deleveraging, from households” and “we have not yet seen businesses really starting to invest, really starting to believe in these recoveries.”

Carney introduced forward guidance in August to encourage businesses and consumers to hire and spend by pledging not to raise the benchmark rate until unemployment, currently 7.6 percent, falls to 7 percent. The BOE held the rate at a record-low 0.5 percent last week.

‘Pretty Comfortable’

In a question-and-answer session after his speech at the Economic Club of New York, he said guidance has been “effective” in holding down short-term rates and bolstering the economy.

Britain’s economic recovery accelerated in the third quarter as investment and house building helped to offset the biggest drop in exports in more than two years. Gross domestic product increased 0.8 percent from three months earlier, matching an initial estimate, data showed Nov. 27.

“I feel pretty comfortable about the near-term outlook,” Carney said in the interview. “But the longer-term outlook is going to turn on these bigger questions of business investment, what happens to productivity, what happens to the so-called supply side of our economy.”

While the economy is growing, it remains 2.5 percent smaller than before the global financial crisis. BOE officials project unemployment will reach 7 percent as early as the end of 2014.

‘Big Question’

“The supply side, this is the big question,” Carney said. “Whether it’s the Federal Reserve or the Bank of England, we both see that this adds impetus to giving stimulus now to get people back into work as quickly as possible.”

In his speech, Carney said while news on the British economy has been “positive,” the recovery needs more robust global growth and that strong demand from the euro area remains “some way off.”

The governor, who joined the BOE in July, also said that risks from high household debt, the housing market and Britain’s current-account deficit “merit vigilance but not panic.”

Carney said in the speech that the U.K. recovery will “need to be sustained for a period before productivity -- and real wage -- gains can resume in earnest.”

On housing, Carney said in his interview that “there’s some welcome recovery in the U.K. housing market, but let’s be prudent, let’s act early, let’s ensure that it continues to evolve in a constructive way.”

Housing Boom

U.K. gross mortgage advances rose 19 percent to 49.5 billion pounds ($81 billion) in the third quarter from the previous three months, and were 25 percent higher than a year earlier, the BOE said today. That’s the highest amount in five years. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said today that its gauge of house prices rose to its highest since June 2002 last month.

“The steps we’ve taken have been to reinforce underwriting standards,” Carney said in his interview. “There’s a variety of ways where we could adjust the terms under which people could get mortgages if we had to. We could ask banks to put more capital behind every mortgage.”

He added: “If you do smaller things early enough, you don’t have to do the really big things later on.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Malcolm Scott in Sydney at mscott23@bloomberg.net; Scott Hamilton in London at shamilton8@bloomberg.net

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Quantitative easing

An unconventional monetary policy in which the central bank buying government securities or other securities from the market in order to lower interest rates and increase the money supply. Quantitative easing increases the money supply by flooding financial institutions with capital in an effort to promote increased lending and liquidity. Quantitative easing is considered when short-term rates at or near zero, and does not involve printing new banknotes.

Typically , the central bank targets the money supply by buying or selling government bonds. When the bank seeks to enhance economic growth, the purchase of government bonds, which lowered short-term interest rates and increase the money supply. This strategy loses its effectiveness when interest rates near zero, forcing the bank to try another strategy to stimulate the economy. Target QE commercial banks and private sector assets instead, and attempts to spur economic growth by encouraging banks to lend money. However, if the money supply increases too rapidly, quantitative easing may lead to higher levels of inflation . This is due to the fact that there is still a fixed amount of goods for sale at the time more money is now available in the economy. In addition, the bank may decide to keep the funds generated by quantitative easing in reserve rather than lend funds to individuals and businesses.

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Quantitative Easing has no effect on a forex trader

What is quantitative easing or quantitative easing monetary or tapering off is the newly created money is used to buy government bonds or other financial assets , while the term usually means printing money that printing money to finance government deficits directly or pay government debt.

Also it should be noted that the increase in base money which is produced by the QE does not always increase the aggregate money supply because banks can keep the cash provided by the Central Bank in the liquidity reserve. In other words tapering off monetary (quantitative easing) can only change the structure of the money supply reduces the portion of the money that has been "printed" by a fractional reserve bank, this is a way to bind account / bank deposit that is returned to the real money without increasing the amount of money.

The rupiah against the U.S. dollar (U.S.) is predicted to continue to weaken as long as there is no certainty about the stimulus reduction / tapering off monetary (quantitative easing) by the U.S. central bank the Federal Reserve.

But does quantitative easing affect the forex trader? Remember, in trading on the alternative trading systems such as online forex trading transactions can be done in two ways.

If a trader has predicted that the dollar would have weakened the position taken by a trader is to open a BUY to open its trade transactions. Vice versa if predicted that the dollar would have strengthened the position is opened with open SELL.

That was his special trade on forex trading online, while other currencies weakened or strengthened the trader can take advantage of the moment. Can be summed up as special online forex trading transactions is then Quantitative Easing does not affect the forex trader. Source : williampercent

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Consumer Price Index

Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) is the count or the average change in retail prices of a basket of goods and services. Index CPI and PPI inflation rate is used. While the rate of inflation calculated based on the interest rate. Use the inflation rate as an indicator of economic fundamentals is to reflect the level of GDP and GNP to the actual values. Value of real GDP and GNP is a very important indicator for an investor to compare the opportunities and risks of investment in foreign countries. One way the government in tackling inflation is by raising policy interest rates. While the gross national product ( GNP ) is the total production of goods and services produced by a country's population residing either / domiciled in the country and outside the country in a given period. Gross domestic product ( GDP ) is the sum of all goods and services produced by a country both by domestic companies and by foreign companies operating in the country at a time / period.

Producer Price Index ( PPI ) is an index that measures the average change in prices received by domestic producers for each output produced in each level of the production process. PPI data collected from various sectors of the economy especially in the manufacturing, mining and agriculture.

Balance of payments is a balance sheet that consists of all activities of international economic transactions of a country, both commercially and financially, with other countries in a given period. Balance of payments reflects all transactions between residents, government, and employers of domestic and foreign parties, such as export and import transactions, investment portfolio, transactions between the Central Bank, and others. With the balance of payments is we know when a country had a surplus or deficit. Broadly speaking, the Balance of Payment is divided into two parts, namely :

Balance of trade is the difference between total exports and imports of goods, services and transfers. In the calculations, the trade balance does not include the transactions of financial assets and liabilities ( debts ). This data is an indicator of the trend of foreign trade is a net flow of total exports and imports of goods and services as receipts or income. With the export transaction will be accepted a sum of money which will increase the demand for the currencies of exporters. Vice versa on import of goods and services where the amount of money must be spent to pay for the goods and services we import, it will increase the country's currency will offer importers.

Capital flow is direct investment and indirect investment, which in direct investment, foreign investors make an investment in real assets such recently built factories, office buildings dll.Investasi is usually long term. While indirect investment can we meet in the financial instrument investment. For example, an investor buying shares or bonds in the Indonesian market. The investor then must exchange their currency into dollars in order to buy stocks or bonds in Indonesia.

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Asah terus kemampuan trading forex Anda melalui demo account

Mengingat investasi pada trading forex online dengan menggunakan uang real, sehingga apabila ingin mengusai segala bentuk dan teknik style trading anda sebaiknya gunakanlah akun demo terlebih dahulu secara maksimal.

Lebih baik Anda merasakan lelah untuk terus belajar dengan menggunakan demo account, sebab apabila Anda sudah berinvestasi pada akun real maka uang yang Anda investasikan adalah uang yang sebenarnya, mungkin uang yang Anda gunakan tersebut adalah uang dari hasil tabungan yang Anda sisihkan tiap bulannya dan kebayang bukan bagaimana Anda mengumpulkannya tiap bulan sehingga Anda dapat berinvestasi pada perdagangan trading forex online.

Sebaiknya kalau Anda datang sebagai pemula dalam bisnis ini ada baiknya mengikuti tips berikut untuk tahu bagaimana memulai berinvestasi pada perdagangan trading forex online. 

Berikut tips strategi trading forex online untuk pemula.

1. Buat metode trading yang terarah serta terlatih dan tidak membuka posisi secara berlebihan yang mengakibatkan over trade dalam bertransaksi. Kesabaran dalam hal ini memegang peranan yang cukup penting serta evaluasi secara terus-menerus kemampuan trading dengan selalu berpikiran dan mempunyai komitmen yang kuat untuk membentuk sebuah strategi trading yang matang.
2. Tentukan waktu trading secara tepat. Sangat penting bagi seorang trader untuk bisa menentukan saat kapan waktu yang tepat untuk masuk serta saat kapan juga untuk keluar market. Dengan melakukan waktu trading yang tepat akan memperbesar peluang untuk mendapatkan keuntungan serta meminimalis kerugian. Bukan masuk market disaat market sedang tidak beraturan.
3. Jaga emosi trading. Agar mendapatkan keuntungan dalam trading forex online tidak hanya mengandalkan insting semata tetapi juga untuk tetap selalu menjaga emosi trading sangat sangatlah penting. Tiap hari tidak hanya seorang pemula saja, seorang professional trader juga banyak mengalami kerugian karena tidak mampu mengendalikan emosi dalam bertrading. 
4. Manfaatkan kesempatan jangan sampai kehilangan momentum. Jangan hanya terpaku pada satu pair mata uang saja, disaat ada momentum dan kesempatan untuk bertransaksi pada mata uang yang lain kenapa tidak, untuk segera di action. Strategi trading yang matang dengan berbagai teknik tentunya akan menghasilkan keuntungan secara konsisten. Salam trader.

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Conference Board Consumer Confidance

Hari ini berita untuk US ada news CB Consumer Confidance (Conference Board Consumer Confidance). Mata uang EURO uptrend dalam minggu ini di level harga 1.3830, kalau seandainya harapan kepercayaan konsumen AS meningkat maka kemungkinan pergerakan mata uang US akan menguat dan diperkirakan mendekati harga di 1.3700 untuk hari ini. Source:williamperkasa.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index yang telah meningkat sedikit pada bulan Agustus, dan menurun lagi pada bulan September sehingga menyebabkan pelemahan terhadap DOLLAR. Indeks sekarang saat ini di 79,7 (1985 = 100 ), turun dari 81,8 pada bulan Agustus. Indeks tumbuh menjadi 73,2 dari 70,9. Indeks Ekspektasi jatuh ke 84,1 dari 89,0 bulan lalu.

Keyakinan konsumen AS menurun pada September karena kekhawatiran tentang prospek jangka pendek sementara ekspektasi untuk kondisi bisnis masa depan sedikit berubah. Penilaian konsumen terhadap bisnis saat ini di fokuskan pada kondisi pasar tenaga kerja, bagaimanapun, hasil nya akan lebih positif. Sementara kondisi ekonomi secara keseluruhan tampaknya telah cukup membaik.

Harapan konsumen AS, yang telah meningkat pada bulan Agustus lalu, dan menurun pada bulan September. Persentase konsumen mengharapkan kondisi bisnis membaik dalam enam bulan ke depan naik menjadi 20,9 persen dari 20,6 persen, kondisi kemungkinan terburuk nya adalah tidak berubah pada 11,0 persen.

Prospek konsumen untuk pasar tenaga kerja, bagaimanapun , tumbuh lebih pesimis. Mengantisipasi lebih banyak pekerjaan di bulan depan menurun menjadi 16,9 persen dari 17,5 persen. Proporsi konsumen mengharapkan pendapatan mereka untuk mereka tingkatkan menjadi 17,5 persen sementara bulan yang lalu hanya 15,4 persen.

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Simple trading with william percent

Williams Percent Range (% R) is a dynamic technical indicator, which determines whether the market is overbought / oversold. Williams% R is very similar to the Stochastic Oscillator. The only difference is that% R has reverse scale and the Stochastic Oscillator internal smoothing.

To show the indicator in this upside down fashion, one places a minus symbol before the Williams Percent Range values ​​(eg, -30%). People should ignore the minus symbol when conducting the analysis.

It was developed by Larry Williams and compares the stock close to the high-low range over a given period, usually 14 days.

source:williampercent

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Yen Jepang menguat terhadap 16 mata uang lain

Yen naik ke level terkuat dalam dua minggu terakhir terhadap dolar dan rebound dari level terendah serta mata uang Yen juga mengalami penguatan terhadap mata uang EURO selama empat tahun terakhir. Mata uang Yen Jepang menguat 0,9 persen menjadi 97,27 per dolar setelah menguat ke 97,16, level terkuat sejak 9 Oktober.

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